Malkiel first publishes the classic A Random Walk Down Wall Street.
The Random Character of Stock Market Prices,pp.
If professionals are operating under false premises, the patterns they perceive would be inconstant and therefore inadequate for reliable forecasting. In this case, their failures would not prove randomness, but epistemological error.
, The Random Character of Stock Market Prices, P.
As the Wave Principle reveals, the overall pattern of stock price movement is nonrandom and indeed so formally constructed that price fluctuation cannot (as argued in Chapter 18) be the result of reasoned decisions by well-informed individuals dealing continually with new information, as is commonly assumed.
Random Walk Theory | Efficient Market Hypothesis
(3) To demand that professional investors beat a bull market is to create a negative-sum game and then insist that the majority win at it. Every manager has to have some cash, and every manager pays commissions. By definition, it is impossible for the majority to beat a bull market. Even random walkers must reject this cute ruse. It is quite certain that if we were to isolate a bear market period in which many money managers beat the market simply because many of them held some cash, random walk proponents would not then declare such performance as evidence against their model.
This is the so-called random-walk-without-drift model: ..
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Random walk theory - SlideShare
A champion of random walk, still plying his axioms in the very latest issue of Bloomberg's Personal Finance magazine, uses this common argument in favor of market randomness: