# The pure expectations theory is a ..

N2 - This paper is concerned with testing the rationality of exchange rate expectations in the Australian foreign exchange market when there are missing observations in the survey data on expectations due to National or other holidays. The survey data analysed contains weekly observations on 1-week and 4-week ahead forecasts of the $US/$A and the Yen/$US exchange rates. The analysis proceeds by (i) examining the time series properties of the actual and expected exchange rates; (ii) investigating whether the cointegrating relationship between the actual and expected exchange rates suggested by the rational expectations hypothesis is satisfied; and (iii) for those cases where the appropriate cointegrating relationship is observed, testing for rationality using the forecast errors. In each of these steps, the problem of missing observations is addressed. Kalman filter techniques suggested by Harvey and Pierse (1984) are used to estimate the appropriate ARIMA models in each step. Results in steps (i)-(iii) are presented for two cases: when the problem of missing observations is ignored; and when appropriate techniques are used to deal with missing observations.

## Expectations Theory - Investopedia

Photo provided by Flickr

### Expectations hypothesis - Wikipedia

Thus, the current expectations are a weighted average of the past values of the variable with decreasing weights going back to the past.

Both the extrapolative expectation and the adaptive expectation theories are based on distributed lag (DL) models.

### The Pure Expectations Theory, Or The Expectations ..

These two theories have three main shortcomings: i) they use ad hoc hypotheses; ii) they do not make an optimal use of the available information set; iii) they assume that people make systematic errors when predicting the future.

Photo provided by Flickr

## Pure expectations theory bonds | scholarly search

According to the market expectations hypothesis, the various maturities are supposed to be the perfect substitutes. The hypothesis also suggests that the shape of the yield curve is dependent on the expectations of the market participants on the future interest rates. The assumptions of the arbitrage opportunities being minimal, the expected rates offer enough information in order to construct a yield curve in a complete manner.