# Fallacy of Division ; Circular Reasoning ; Extravagant Hypothesis .

**edit** The hypothesis is that the coin is fair and statistic is the probability of occurring the sequence. I can compute the probability of occurred sequence from the hypothesis. For any sufficiently long sequence, the theoretical probability is too low and, therefore, fairness must be rejected. Where is the fallacy?

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wrote:

I'm having trouble understanding the difference between the two proof

fallacies "affirming the conclusion" and "denying the hypothesis".

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AB - In his classic article on the fallacy of the null hypothesis in soft psychology [J. Consult. Clin. Psychol. 46 (1978)], Paul Meehl claimed that, in nonexperimental settings, the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis of nil group differences in favor of a directional alternative was 0.50-a value that is an order of magnitude higher than the customary Type I error rate. In a series of real data simulations, using Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory-Revised (MMPI-2) data collected from more than 80,000 individuals, I found strong support for Meehl's claim.

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N2 - In his classic article on the fallacy of the null hypothesis in soft psychology [J. Consult. Clin. Psychol. 46 (1978)], Paul Meehl claimed that, in nonexperimental settings, the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis of nil group differences in favor of a directional alternative was 0.50-a value that is an order of magnitude higher than the customary Type I error rate. In a series of real data simulations, using Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory-Revised (MMPI-2) data collected from more than 80,000 individuals, I found strong support for Meehl's claim.